The Rise in Testing Is Not Driving the Rise in U.S. Virus Cases

As coronavirus circumstances have surged in current weeks, President Trump has repeatedly mentioned the rising case depend is a results of elevated testing, not a worsening outbreak. An evaluation by The New York Instances, nonetheless, exhibits the rise in circumstances far outpaces the expansion in testing.

The common variety of assessments carried out nationwide has grown by 80 p.c since early June, to 780,000 per day. Day by day case counts have grown by 215 p.c in the identical interval.

Thirty-one states present a rise in circumstances past what could be anticipated from expanded testing, if the severity of the outbreak had remained about the identical. Florida, the state with the biggest discrepancy, is reporting greater than 11,000 new circumstances per day, on common, whereas solely about 2,400 circumstances every day could be anticipated due to elevated testing. California and Texas numbers are additionally far above what could be anticipated.

How Coronavirus Circumstances Evaluate With Expectations

The charts present how the variety of reported circumstances compares with the anticipated depend based mostly on expanded testing. The hole for states with extra circumstances than anticipated is highlighted. Every state is by itself scale.

Might 27
July 21

Precise circumstances
7-day common

Anticipated circumstances
Alaska+104
Ala.+1,042
Ark.+194
Ariz.+1,565
Calif.+three,450
Colo.+81
Conn.-254
D.C.-166
Del.-33
Fla.+eight,743
Ga.-1,713
Hawaii+10
Iowa+84
Idaho+449
Sick.-1,005
Ind.+80
Kan.+305
Ky.+284
La.+1,045
Mass.-740
Md.-519
Maine-25
Mich.+323
Minn.+13
Mo.+518
Miss.+711
Mont.+98
N.C.-160
N.D.+41
Neb.-104
N.H.-20
N.J.-161
N.M.+28
Nev.+944
N.Y.-484
Ohio+407
Okla.+395
Ore.+181
Pa.-150
R.I.-47
S.C.+1,108
S.D.+21
Tenn.+831
Texas+5,493
Utah+54
Va.-574
Vt.zero
Wash.-Four
Wis.+465
W.Va.+69
Wyo.+33

In some states with smaller outbreaks, case progress outpaces testing progress by giant percentages. In Idaho, there are greater than 5 instances as many circumstances as could be anticipated with expanded testing. In Nevada, there are six instances as many.

In 14 states and Washington, D.C., testing has elevated quicker than circumstances have, that means constructive take a look at charges are falling. Lots of these states are within the Northeast. In New York — the epicenter of the outbreak early on — circumstances have continued to say no, even with greater than 60,000 assessments carried out day by day. In 5 states, circumstances are about what could be anticipated.

These numbers come from an evaluation of knowledge from the COVID Monitoring Challenge, a volunteer group that data the variety of assessments carried out and circumstances reported in each state.

To calculate how expanded testing may have an effect on case counts, The Instances seemed on the common constructive take a look at fee in every state for the 2 weeks ending June 9, when circumstances reached a current nationwide low. These charges had been then multiplied by the variety of assessments executed every day since, in an effort to arrive on the anticipated variety of circumstances given the present stage of testing.

These calculations assume that the severity of the outbreak in every state would stay about the identical and that constructive take a look at charges would maintain as testing expanded. That is essentially the most that circumstances would improve because of elevated testing.

As assessments turn into extra extensively obtainable and extra people who find themselves not sick take them, constructive take a look at charges ought to fall.

As a substitute, the US is seeing the other: Extra assessments are being carried out, however extra are coming again constructive, driving case counts even larger.

Coronavirus Exams and Constructive Check Charge in the US

250,000500,000750,000 assessments per dayApril 1July 21

5% constructive take a look at fee10%15%April 1July 21

The constructive take a look at fee is now over eight p.c nationally, up from a low of lower than 5 p.c in June. That progress is a startling indicator that implies the outbreak is worsening in a approach testing alone can’t clarify.

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